Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Recommended by: Currie Thomson
Posted in: Member-Recommended Readings Social PsychologyPurchase →
Philip Tetlock traced the accuracy of experts’ political predictions made over two decades. He concluded that “the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” Some, however—those who based their forecasts on a broad array of facts gathered from diverse schools of thought—had a better record than others.
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