Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Philip E. Tetlock | 2005
Posted in: Member-Recommended Readings Social Psychology
Purchase →

Philip Tetlock traced the accuracy of experts’ political predictions made over two decades. He concluded that “the average expert was roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” Some, however—those who based their forecasts on a broad array of facts gathered from diverse schools of thought—had a better record than others.